Brazil Public Sector: Borrowing Requirements

The nominal deficit of the consolidated public sector reached 3.45% of the GDP in the last 12 months ended in October/2013. As the graph shows, the nominal result reached its lower level in mid-2008, and has a growth trend since 2011. This deterioration in nominal result was due mainly to low pace of economic activity, which led to a lower growth of public revenues. On the other hand, expenditure continued with a pace of real growth, contributing to worse the public accounts.

Source: Central Bank of Brazil 

See also:

http://www.brazil-monitor.com/2013/11/brazil-gross-public-debt.html

Brazil - International Reserves

The volume of international reserves reached USD 361 million at December 05, a decrease of USD 12 billion compared to the end of 2012, according to data released by the Central Bank of Brazil. The growth in the volume of reserves, as we can see in the chart, has occurred consistently over the past 10 years. The slight decrease in the volume of reserves in 2013 was due to the sale with repurchase agreement the Bank have been practicing to increase the  liquidity to the foreign exchange market, and the volume of reserves should rise as soon as these operations goes to maturity.

Source: Central Bank of Brazil

Brazil: Labor Force

According to the IBGE - Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, the "PIA" (active age population) reached 42.9 million people in October 2013 in the metropolitan areas in Brazil, virtually equal to the previous month and an increase of 1.2% compared to October 2012. In 2013, the average growth was 1%.

The graph below shows the evolution of the labor force and the growth rate over the previous year and in the last 12 months. The graph shows that the size of the labor force increased 1.1% over the last 12 months, but this growth has been in a declining trend over the past 10 years.

Source: www.ibge.gov.br

Brazil - Balance of Payments - Oct/2013

The balance of payments registered a deficit of USD 4.5 billion in October. The current account deficit reached USD 7.1 billion in the month and $ 67.5 billion in the year through October, more than in the same period 2012, USD 39.6 billion. In the last twelve months, the accumulated current account deficit of $ 82.2 billion, equivalent to 3.67% of GDP.

The net balance of Brazilian direct investment abroad and foreign investment in Brazil reached USD 5.5 billion in October

Foreign portfolio investment showed net inflows of $ 388 million in October and totaled USD 41 billion in the last 12 months.

The chart below shows the historical data of Brazil's balance of payments:

Source: Central Bank o Brazil

The complete tables, published by the Central Bank of Brazil, are in link:

http://www.bcb.gov.br/?BALANCESPECIAL

Brazil - Inflation Oct-2013

The official inflation index reached 0.57% in October, and in the last 12 months, accumulates 5.84%, and it is with a slight downward trend, as we can see in the chart below.

By decomposing the ratio between monitored and non-monitored prices, we can see that, while non-monitored prices rose 7.4% in the last 12 months, monitored prices rose only 1%. Monitored prices are mostly prices of electricity power, fuel and bus fares, and are sectors where the government intervened to prevent price increases to curb inflation.

More details can be found at:

http://migre.me/gFcgH

Brazil: Gross Public Debt

The Brazilian gross public debt totaled BRL 2.8 trillion in September (in USD, about 1.3 trillion), and reached a level of 58.8% of GDP. The domestic and external gross debt achieved respectively 55.8% and 3% of GDP. The debt, mesuared as percentual of  GDP, had a slight decrease compared to the month before, when it reached 59.15%, and is virtually the same level of September of 2012, when it was 57.8%.

The chart below shows the recent evolution of gross debt to GDP.

Source: Central Bank of Brazil

Brazil - Real Wage

IBGE - Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - reported the average wages that prevailed in the labor market in the country's six largest cities: Sao Paulo. Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Porto Alegre, Recife and Salvador. According to these data, the average salary in September 2013 was BRL1,900.14, equivalent to USD 867 per month. Over the past 12 months, real average salary was USD 10,575  in annual basis. In the last 9 years, , the average annual growth in real wages measured in constant USD was 3.2% a.a.

Source: IBGE

Brazil - Current Acount - Aug 2013

Brazil had a current account deficit in August which  represented 3,6% of GDP. The chart below shows the evolution of current account balance to GDP in a recent period.

Graph I - Current Account % of GDP - Last 12 months.

Brazil - Net Public Debt Aug-2013

The ratio net public debt to GDP reached 33,84 % in August 2013 and come in a downward trend over the last decade, as we can see in the graphic below. The Brazilian government is a creditor in foreign currency, and the movements of BRL depreciation leads to debt reduction, as occurred in 2008 and the start of the 2nd half of 2013.

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